Tag Archives: GVSU Economist

GVSU Economist: Local economics stats down sharply, but not as bad as expected

May 7, 20203-bottomCOVID-19, economy, Grand Valley State University, GVSU, GVSU EconomistJoanne

Brian Long is a local business forecaster. Credit: GVSU

By Dottie Barnes
Grand Valley State University

It was anticipated the local economic statistics for April would be negative, but the numbers weren’t as bad as expected, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.

“This report is one of the weakest we have filed in our 40-year history; however, the data we collected in the third and fourth weeks of April did not turn out to be a record low,” he said.

Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of April.

The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) fell to -45 from -21. Long noted at the onset of the Great Recession, new orders fell to -59 in December 2008.

The production index fell to -48 from -16. The index of purchases fell to -44 from -30, and the employment index plummeted to -41 from -25.

Long said during the Great Recession, it took 18 months (October 2007 to April 2009) for statistics in this local survey to turn back to positive.

“As the economy slowly reopens, we will be closely monitoring the confidence levels of both retail and industrial consumers, both of which have been hit very hard,” he said.

Had it not been for Internet purchases, Long said, auto sales would have been virtually non-existent. He said automakers and dealers have countered many of the lockdown measures with remote and online sales, but U.S. light-vehicle deliveries were expected to fall 50-55 percent in April.

Long said COVID-19 will cause nearly every industry to reevaluate supply chains. “Many firms had no idea that many subcomponents back in the supply chain were coming from China,” he said. “Look for an anti-China backlash.”

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”

GVSU economist: Slower growth, sagging confidence

June 10, 20193-bottomBrian Long, GVSU, GVSU EconomistJoanne

By Dottie Barnes
GVSU

The West Michigan economy is slowing with evidence of a flat growth pattern, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.

Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of May.

The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) flattened to +3, down from +13. The production index held steady at +11, while the index of purchases dropped sharply to -2 from +16. The employment index rose to +15 from +4.

“The sharp drop in our index of purchases indicates many firms are putting expansion plans on hold and beginning to sandbag operations in the event that the economy continues to flatten,” said Long.

He said the local economic slowdown is related to the trade war with China and the possibility of tariffs on Mexican imports.

“The economic impact and direction of the ongoing multi-national tariff wars virtually defies prediction,” said Long. “What we do know is that the tariffs are starting to raise prices for a wide variety of commodities and pinch profitably for an increasing number of firms. Business planners hate uncertainty, and not knowing what new commodities might be impacted and what the resulting delivered prices might be causes future hiring or expansion plans to be put on hold.”

GVSU economist: Summer looks strong

May 7, 20183-bottomBrian Long, Grand Valley State University, GVSU, GVSU EconomistJoanne

By Dottie Barnes

Grand Valley State University

The stronger-than-usual performance of the West Michigan economy has continued into the opening of the second quarter of 2018, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.

Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of April.

The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) retreated to +28 from +34. The production index edged lower to +28 from +31. The index of purchases eased to +34 from +37, and the employment index rose to +23 from +19.

“Most capital equipment manufacturers continue to be positive, but there are some exceptions,” said Long. “Local automotive parts producers are still modestly expanding despite the slight downtick for the industry as a whole.”

Long said the office furniture industry is holding steady, but signs indicate the peak for the current business cycle has been reached. He said most industrial distributors reported a good month, much as they have since the beginning of the year.

The latest numbers reported by the Department of Technology, Management and Budget pegged Michigan’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for March at 4.7 percent. Long said from March 2017 to March 2018, payroll jobs in Michigan increased by 61,000 or 1.4 percent. The estimated unemployment rates range between 3.2 percent for Ottawa County to 4.2 percent in Barry County, all well below the state average.

The national U-6 unemployment rate, which includes various discouraged and marginally attached workers, has now fallen to a 17-year low of 7.8 percent.