Tag Archives: tariffs

GVSU reports West Michigan economy holds steady amid tariff challenges

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West Michigan’s economy has remained flat but stable through October as federal tariffs continue to challenge businesses (Courtesy, pxhere.com)


By WKTV Staff

deborah@wktv.org


A report by a Grand Valley State University (GVSU) researcher shows West Michigan’s economy has remained flat but stable through October as federal tariffs continue to challenge businesses.

Brian Long, Director of Supply Management Research at GVSU’s Seidman College of Business, said businesses and purchasing managers continue adjusting to the ongoing effects of established tariffs.

“For the higher tariff costs, some firms have been able to get the seller to absorb all or most of the increase, and others have been able to pass the higher cost along,” Long said.

“But some firms are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They can’t get the seller to absorb the increase, and they can’t pass the higher cost on to the buyer.”

Remaining resilient

Despite the added costs, one of West Michigan’s biggest cyclical industries — auto parts manufacturing — has remained resilient, said Long.

“So far, auto sales are holding up, so our local auto parts suppliers are still doing reasonably well, although some were overpromised business for the EV models, and their production has slowed,” Long continued. “But our overall production index for West Michigan is still currently positive.”

Michigan’s auto parts manufacturing has remained resilient (Courtesy, pxhere.com)

Unemployment concerns

Long said Michigan’s unemployment rate remains an area of concern. The state’s jobless rate held at approximately 5.2% in the latest data, ranking 48th in the nation. Only California and Nevada reported higher rates.

“Unemployment for West Michigan, and especially Michigan as a whole, has crept up on us,” said Long. “Over the past decade, West Michigan in particular was adding jobs like crazy. That has now stopped.”

Key index results

Below is a look at key index results from October’s survey of West Michigan purchasing managers:

  • New orders index (business improvement): -4 vs. -3 in September
  • Production index (output): +4 vs. +4 in September
  • Employment index: +2 vs. -8 in September
  • Lead times index: -4 vs. +13 in September

More information about the survey and an archive of past surveys are available on the Seidman College of Business website.

West Michigan economy flattens amid tariff uncertainty

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The West Michigan economy showed signs of leveling off in September, according to a monthly survey conducted by a GVSU researcher (Courtesy, pxhere.com)


By Brian Vernellis

GVSU Communications

vernellb@gvsu.edu


The West Michigan economy showed signs of leveling off in September, according to a monthly survey conducted by a Grand Valley State University researcher.


Tariffs implemented by President Donald Trump’s administration have created challenges for businesses to plan accordingly, said Brian Long, director of supply management research at GVSU’s Seidman
College of Business.

“Although there is still no sign that a recession is pending, plans for new hires, new equipment and other new programs have generally been put on hold, pending clarification of future business costs and supply chain issues,” Long said in his report.

Uncertainty for the new year

The economy for the remainder of 2025 and the beginning of the new year is uncertain (Courtesy, pxhere.com)

Long’s new orders index, a measurement of business improvement, rebounded sharply in September, but remained in negative territory while the purchases index, a measurement of firms’ buying activity, dropped significantly.

“(The purchases index) is a clue to the uncertainty generated by the ongoing tariff wars,” Long said in his report.

However, Long’s production index, which tracks output, rose into positive territory.

“Needless to say, the economy for the rest of 2025 will be held captive by tariff talks and to a lesser degree, the potential outcome of the Gaza and Ukrainian wars,” Long said in his report.

“Unfortunately, it is possible that none of these issues will be fully and permanently resolved as we ring in 2026.”

Key index results

Here’s a look at the key index results from September’s survey of West Michigan purchasing managers:

  • New orders index (business improvement): -3 vs. -16 in August
  • Production index (output): +4 vs. -4 in August
  • Employment index: -8 vs. -4 in August
  • Lead times index: +13 vs. 0 in August

More information about the survey and an archive of past surveys are available on the Seidman College of Business website.

West Michigan shows economic resilience despite months of uncertainty

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Despite months of economic uncertainty stemming from tariff policies and ongoing global trade tensions, the West Michigan economy has remained resilient, according to data collected by a GVSU researcher (Courtesy, pxhere.com)


By WKTV Staff

deborah@wktv.org


Despite months of economic uncertainty stemming from tariff policies and ongoing global trade tensions, the West Michigan economy has remained resilient, according to data collected by a Grand Valley State University (GVSU) researcher.

Brian Long, Director of Supply Management Research at GVSU’s Seidman College of Business, said his monthly survey of local firms and purchasing managers shows the regional economy has gained unexpected strength through the summer.

Three-year highs

In fact, Long said two key metrics in his recent survey — the new orders index and production index — hit three-year highs. The survey’s new orders index measures a company’s business improvement while the production index reflects a firm’s output.

“Almost any firm with a supply chain that originates anywhere outside of the country is having trouble keeping up with the tariff wars on virtually a daily basis,” Long said.

(Courtesy, pxhere.com)

“Fortunately, most of our respondents seem to be taking it in stride partially based on the experience gained from the COVID crisis, but almost all of them are holding up major decisions on new equipment, plant expansion, new sourcing and so forth until the trade war with their segment of the supply chain is resolved.”

Long said the short- and long-term business confidence among local firms has also remained relatively stable since a sharp drop in April, when the tariffs were first announced.

“In the industrial market…one of our survey respondents says that tariff management is becoming more routine,” Long said, adding that the respondent continues to watch tariff deadlines despite that belief.

June survey key index results of West Michigan businesses:

  • New orders index (business improvement): +21 vs. +14 in May
  • Production index (output): +28 vs. +14 in May
  • Employment index: 0 vs. 0 in May
  • Lead times index: +4 vs. +18 in May

Resource Links

More information about the survey and an archive of past surveys are available on the Seidman College of Business website.

Audio clips and a transcript of those clips are available at gvsu.edu/s/3gf.

GVSU economist: Tariffs are beginning to hurt

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Brian Long is a local business forecaster. Credit: GVSU

By Dottie Barnes

GVSU

 

Tariffs have been threatened for many months, and now that they are actually being imposed, the West Michigan economy is beginning to feel the pinch, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.

 

Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of July.

 

After 18 months of solid growth, the survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) is down sharply from June at -3, down from +33. The production index eased to +23 from a robust +39. The index of purchases tapered to +13 from +27, and the employment index eased to +21 from +30.

 

“Although our last report was quite strong, growth has slowed in almost every sector of the West Michigan economy,” said Long. “Business planners hate uncertainty, and many firms appear to be putting expansion plans on hold until they can see a clearer picture of where the trade war is taking us and exactly how much it will cost.”

 

Long said auto sales are continuing to soften, especially for local auto parts suppliers. He said local firms producing capital equipment are still benefitting from the recently passed tax advantages for new capital investments, but rising costs are a major concern. Many local industrial distributors reported flat business conditions for July, some of which may be seasonal.

 

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”