By Brian Vernellis
GVSU Communications
The West Michigan economy showed signs of leveling off in September, according to a monthly survey conducted by a Grand Valley State University researcher.
Tariffs implemented by President Donald Trump’s administration have created challenges for businesses to plan accordingly, said Brian Long, director of supply management research at GVSU’s Seidman
College of Business.
“Although there is still no sign that a recession is pending, plans for new hires, new equipment and other new programs have generally been put on hold, pending clarification of future business costs and supply chain issues,” Long said in his report.
Uncertainty for the new year
Long’s new orders index, a measurement of business improvement, rebounded sharply in September, but remained in negative territory while the purchases index, a measurement of firms’ buying activity, dropped significantly.
“(The purchases index) is a clue to the uncertainty generated by the ongoing tariff wars,” Long said in his report.
However, Long’s production index, which tracks output, rose into positive territory.
“Needless to say, the economy for the rest of 2025 will be held captive by tariff talks and to a lesser degree, the potential outcome of the Gaza and Ukrainian wars,” Long said in his report.
“Unfortunately, it is possible that none of these issues will be fully and permanently resolved as we ring in 2026.”
Key index results
Here’s a look at the key index results from September’s survey of West Michigan purchasing managers:
- New orders index (business improvement): -3 vs. -16 in August
- Production index (output): +4 vs. -4 in August
- Employment index: -8 vs. -4 in August
- Lead times index: +13 vs. 0 in August
More information about the survey and an archive of past surveys are available on the Seidman College of Business website.
