Tag Archives: GVSU Economist

GVSU reports West Michigan economy holds steady amid tariff challenges

3-bottom, Citizen Journalism, Economy, Finances, Hard News, West Michigan, , , ,
West Michigan’s economy has remained flat but stable through October as federal tariffs continue to challenge businesses (Courtesy, pxhere.com)


By WKTV Staff

deborah@wktv.org


A report by a Grand Valley State University (GVSU) researcher shows West Michigan’s economy has remained flat but stable through October as federal tariffs continue to challenge businesses.

Brian Long, Director of Supply Management Research at GVSU’s Seidman College of Business, said businesses and purchasing managers continue adjusting to the ongoing effects of established tariffs.

“For the higher tariff costs, some firms have been able to get the seller to absorb all or most of the increase, and others have been able to pass the higher cost along,” Long said.

“But some firms are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They can’t get the seller to absorb the increase, and they can’t pass the higher cost on to the buyer.”

Remaining resilient

Despite the added costs, one of West Michigan’s biggest cyclical industries — auto parts manufacturing — has remained resilient, said Long.

“So far, auto sales are holding up, so our local auto parts suppliers are still doing reasonably well, although some were overpromised business for the EV models, and their production has slowed,” Long continued. “But our overall production index for West Michigan is still currently positive.”

Michigan’s auto parts manufacturing has remained resilient (Courtesy, pxhere.com)

Unemployment concerns

Long said Michigan’s unemployment rate remains an area of concern. The state’s jobless rate held at approximately 5.2% in the latest data, ranking 48th in the nation. Only California and Nevada reported higher rates.

“Unemployment for West Michigan, and especially Michigan as a whole, has crept up on us,” said Long. “Over the past decade, West Michigan in particular was adding jobs like crazy. That has now stopped.”

Key index results

Below is a look at key index results from October’s survey of West Michigan purchasing managers:

  • New orders index (business improvement): -4 vs. -3 in September
  • Production index (output): +4 vs. +4 in September
  • Employment index: +2 vs. -8 in September
  • Lead times index: -4 vs. +13 in September

More information about the survey and an archive of past surveys are available on the Seidman College of Business website.

West Michigan economy flattens amid tariff uncertainty

1-featured, Citizen Journalism, Economy, Finances, Hard News, Kent County, West Michigan, , , , , ,
The West Michigan economy showed signs of leveling off in September, according to a monthly survey conducted by a GVSU researcher (Courtesy, pxhere.com)


By Brian Vernellis

GVSU Communications

vernellb@gvsu.edu


The West Michigan economy showed signs of leveling off in September, according to a monthly survey conducted by a Grand Valley State University researcher.


Tariffs implemented by President Donald Trump’s administration have created challenges for businesses to plan accordingly, said Brian Long, director of supply management research at GVSU’s Seidman
College of Business.

“Although there is still no sign that a recession is pending, plans for new hires, new equipment and other new programs have generally been put on hold, pending clarification of future business costs and supply chain issues,” Long said in his report.

Uncertainty for the new year

The economy for the remainder of 2025 and the beginning of the new year is uncertain (Courtesy, pxhere.com)

Long’s new orders index, a measurement of business improvement, rebounded sharply in September, but remained in negative territory while the purchases index, a measurement of firms’ buying activity, dropped significantly.

“(The purchases index) is a clue to the uncertainty generated by the ongoing tariff wars,” Long said in his report.

However, Long’s production index, which tracks output, rose into positive territory.

“Needless to say, the economy for the rest of 2025 will be held captive by tariff talks and to a lesser degree, the potential outcome of the Gaza and Ukrainian wars,” Long said in his report.

“Unfortunately, it is possible that none of these issues will be fully and permanently resolved as we ring in 2026.”

Key index results

Here’s a look at the key index results from September’s survey of West Michigan purchasing managers:

  • New orders index (business improvement): -3 vs. -16 in August
  • Production index (output): +4 vs. -4 in August
  • Employment index: -8 vs. -4 in August
  • Lead times index: +13 vs. 0 in August

More information about the survey and an archive of past surveys are available on the Seidman College of Business website.

West Michigan economy continues modest growth, shows promise

3-bottom, Citizen Journalism, Finances, Going Local, Kent County, West Michigan, , , ,
Key metrics show upward tick for the third consecutive month (Courtesy, pxhere.com)



By Brian Vernellis

GVSU Communications


A survey of West Michigan businesses and managers conducted by a Grand Valley State University (GVSU) researcher shows a promising trend of modest economic growth for the region’s economy.

Key metrics in the monthly survey conducted by Brian Long, Director of Supply Management Research at the Seidman College of Business, ticked upward for the third straight month. Despite this positive trajectory, some of April’s respondents approached the year’s second quarter with caution.

Maintaining momentum

(Courtesy, pxhere.com)

Long’s survey of the region’s purchasing managers pointed toward two pivotal indices rising in April. New orders, or business improvement, rose six points while production, or business output, climbed 14 points.

Long said industries like auto parts suppliers and office furniture manufacturers are maintaining their momentum, despite challenges in the global supply chain.

“I do believe that at least some of our statistics will moderate as the summer moves along, but there’s still no sign of an impending doom even if the economy does slow down some, which is what the Federal Reserve wanted to happen,” said Long. “They just don’t want it to slow down too much.”

Continued caution among survey respondents

Even with the encouraging numbers in the GVSU survey, Long noted that among surveyed respondents the mood was decidedly reserved, pointing toward slower growth over the next few months.

“Locally, our current statistics depict stable growth, but our April anecdotal comments from our survey participants continue to grow more cautious,” Long said. “In general, the survey respondents now expect slower growth for the next few months, but still little probability of a recession for the rest of 2024.”


(Courtesy, pxhere.com)

West Michigan key index results

Here is a look at the key index results from April’s survey of West Michigan businesses: 

  • New orders index (business improvement): +16 vs. +10 in March 
  • Production index (output): +16 vs. +2 in March 
  • Employment index: +7 vs. +9 in March 
  • Lead times index: -15 vs. -2 in March 

More information about the survey and an archive of past surveys are available on the Seidman College of Business website.

GVSU Economist: Local economics stats down sharply, but not as bad as expected

3-bottom, , , ,
Brian Long is a local business forecaster. Credit: GVSU

By Dottie Barnes
Grand Valley State University

It was anticipated the local economic statistics for April would be negative, but the numbers weren’t as bad as expected, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.

“This report is one of the weakest we have filed in our 40-year history; however, the data we collected in the third and fourth weeks of April did not turn out to be a record low,” he said.

Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of April.

The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) fell to -45 from -21. Long noted at the onset of the Great Recession, new orders fell to -59 in December 2008.

The production index fell to -48 from -16. The index of purchases fell to -44 from -30, and the employment index plummeted to -41 from -25.

Long said during the Great Recession, it took 18 months (October 2007 to April 2009) for statistics in this local survey to turn back to positive.

“As the economy slowly reopens, we will be closely monitoring the confidence levels of both retail and industrial consumers, both of which have been hit very hard,” he said.

Had it not been for Internet purchases, Long said, auto sales would have been virtually non-existent. He said automakers and dealers have countered many of the lockdown measures with remote and online sales, but U.S. light-vehicle deliveries were expected to fall 50-55 percent in April.

Long said COVID-19 will cause nearly every industry to reevaluate supply chains. “Many firms had no idea that many subcomponents back in the supply chain were coming from China,” he said. “Look for an anti-China backlash.”

 

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”

GVSU economist: Slower growth, sagging confidence

3-bottom, ,
Brian Long is a local business forecaster. Credit: GVSU

By Dottie Barnes
GVSU


The West Michigan economy is slowing with evidence of a flat growth pattern, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.

Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of May.

The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) flattened to +3, down from +13. The production index held steady at +11, while the index of purchases dropped sharply to -2 from +16. The employment index rose to +15 from +4.

“The sharp drop in our index of purchases indicates many firms are putting expansion plans on hold and beginning to sandbag operations in the event that the economy continues to flatten,” said Long.

He said the local economic slowdown is related to the trade war with China and the possibility of tariffs on Mexican imports.

“The economic impact and direction of the ongoing multi-national tariff wars virtually defies prediction,” said Long. “What we do know is that the tariffs are starting to raise prices for a wide variety of commodities and pinch profitably for an increasing number of firms. Business planners hate uncertainty, and not knowing what new commodities might be impacted and what the resulting delivered prices might be causes future hiring or expansion plans to be put on hold.”

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”

GVSU economist: Summer looks strong

3-bottom, , ,

Brian Long is a local business forecaster. Credit: GVSU

By Dottie Barnes

Grand Valley State University

 

The stronger-than-usual performance of the West Michigan economy has continued into the opening of the second quarter of 2018, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.

 

Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of April.

 

The survey’s index of business improvement (new orders) retreated to +28 from +34. The production index edged lower to +28 from +31. The index of purchases eased to +34 from +37, and the employment index rose to +23 from +19.

 

“Most capital equipment manufacturers continue to be positive, but there are some exceptions,” said Long. “Local automotive parts producers are still modestly expanding despite the slight downtick for the industry as a whole.”

 

Long said the office furniture industry is holding steady, but signs indicate the peak for the current business cycle has been reached. He said most industrial distributors reported a good month, much as they have since the beginning of the year.

 

The latest numbers reported by the Department of Technology, Management and Budget pegged Michigan’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for March at 4.7 percent. Long said from March 2017 to March 2018, payroll jobs in Michigan increased by 61,000 or 1.4 percent. The estimated unemployment rates range between 3.2 percent for Ottawa County to 4.2 percent in Barry County, all well below the state average.

 

The national U-6 unemployment rate, which includes various discouraged and marginally attached workers, has now fallen to a 17-year low of 7.8 percent.

 

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region’s major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as “same,” “up” or “down.”